So this is how I think this will play out
Phase 1 - attacks on more NPC convoys, capital ships, etc... Thargoids can still not be engaged. The question of who shot first remains unanswered
- a pair of competing community goals, one aggressive (fight back), one passive (offer peaceful contact) - the aggressive one wins making the whole "who shot first" question moot
Phase 2 - attacks on some form of asset as a response to the CG, probably an outpost or ground base. Thargoids can still not be engaged
2.4 Drops
Phase 3 - first meaningful contacts, players are given the option to communicate or fight, potentially this is with some form of less powerful scouting Thargoid ship - "certain" members of the "community" choose the aggressive route
Phase 4 - first meaningful battles in a restricted area of space with the more powerful Thargoids
- more CGs to determine the response, again the "community" chooses the more aggressive route
Phase 5 - more widespread fights
- more CGs too get better weapons and defenses, and/or more RNGineers
Phase 6 - all out war, CZs against Thargoids, hyperdictions in the heart of the bubble (much qq'ing from the "community"). Probably more CGs to support the battle front
Phase 7 - CGs and/or puzzles to discover the Thargoid 'home-world' (members of the Cannon find it first)
Phase 8 - an attack on the Thargoid 'home-world' via a CG
Phase 9 - RNGineers use "discoveries" from the Thargoid 'home-world' for new improved weapons and defenses
Phase 10 - Thargoids "defeated", pockets of them remain and the effectively just become another NPC
seems they remove your shoe and take a sock.. 
Damn!!! 