Here's a tip. I worked this out from observing my own progress during several goals and also recording how friends were doing. It seems to work for any type of community goal: combat, trade or exploration. And even though it's an approximate rule of thumb, I still find it useful.
At any time after a community goal has got really established (preferably a few days in), take the current group achievement (reports, tonnes, bounties etc.) and divide by the current number of contributors. That gives the average current contribution per pilot, and let's call that "
A".
Then look at your personal contribution - let's call it "
P" - and divide P by A to get the
P/A ratio of your current personal contribution to the group average.
If the
P/A ratio is more than 2.5, I've found you have a good chance of maintaining a
top 15% position - and therefore 2.5 is usually my personal target.
Yes it varies from goal to goal, and this particular one barely had time to get started so it had not settled down and the method isn't as useful, but let's use it as an example nonetheless as the figures are in the opening post.
A = 194,324/1,978 = 98.2
To achieve P/A > 2.5, you'd need at least 98.2 x 2.5 = 246 reports.
You can get a feel for other positions too. For example you may find that a P/A ratio of 2.0 will secure you top 40% without having to worry about slipping down. I also find top 5% is unrealistic for me, giving my personal time commitments, but top 15% is usually doable - hence the heuristic and my P/A target of 2.5.
I've now put a version of this post in Internal Tips and Tricks here:
http://www.elitepve.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=2297